Inside the Data: Today’s Car Deal Is Carrying More Weight
- StoneEagle
- 4 days ago
- 3 min read
Updated: 4 days ago
Transaction-level data from more than half the market shows how longer loan terms, rising negative equity, and heavier EV balances are reshaping vehicle transactions.
By Gregory Arroyo
At first glance, the auto finance market doesn’t look dramatically different from a few years ago. Average finance terms have moved only slightly. Dealers are still finding ways to get customers into vehicles. Deals are still getting done.
But underneath the averages, the structure of today’s car deal is quietly getting heavier.
More deals are stretching into 84-month territory. Financed balances continue climbing. Negative equity keeps rolling forward into the next purchase. And when you zoom in far enough — down to the transaction level — you start seeing dealership behavior shift under pressure.
Here are a few things that stood out in StoneEagleDATA’s transaction-level dataset, built from over 50% of the U.S. automotive retail market.
The Pressure Is Showing Up at 84 Months
Average finance terms in the StoneEagleDATA dataset increased only modestly over the past five quarters — up about 1.16%. But the more interesting movement is happening at the far end of the curve:
Roughly 22%–23% of new-vehicle finance deals now run 84 months or longer.
About 14%–15% of used-vehicle finance deals now run 84 months or longer.
At the same time, financed balances continued climbing, average monthly payments rose roughly 2.2%, and negative equity on new vehicles reached roughly $8,728 in the first quarter.
New-vehicle finance deals written at 84 months regularly pushed beyond $50,000 financed in the data, illustrating how larger finance amounts are increasingly concentrated in the longest loan structures.
EV Financing Is Following a Different Pattern
EVs still represented a relatively small share of the broader StoneEagleDATA dataset during the period. Even during the third quarter 2025 push ahead of the Sept. 30 federal EV tax-credit expiration, EV share peaked at roughly 5.5% of deals before cooling sharply throughout Q4 2025 and stabilizing closer to the low-3% range by March 2026.
But while EV volume remained comparatively modest overall, some new-EV finance deals carried unusually heavy financing structures.
StoneEagleDATA transaction data showed new-EV 84-month penetration climbing from roughly 9%–10% in late 2024 to a peak near 13.8% in October 2025 before easing back into the low-12% range by Q1 2026.
At the same time, average financed balances on 84-month new-EV deals regularly exceeded $60,000 during portions of 2025, with some periods briefly pushing beyond $70,000. Comparable non-EV 84-month financed balances generally remained closer to the low-$50,000 range during the same period.
The pattern became especially noticeable during the third-quarter 2025 tax-credit surge. But even after overall EV share cooled, elevated financed balances and extended-term structures continued appearing in portions of the new-EV data through the first quarter of 2026.
Beneath the Averages
None of these trends look especially dramatic on their own. Average terms only moved modestly. EV share remained relatively small overall. And most customers are still getting approved and completing transactions.
But when you layer the trends together — longer terms, larger financed balances, deeper negative equity, and heavier EV financing structures — the average vehicle transaction is carrying substantially more weight than it did just a few years ago.
That’s The Complete Picture. Brought to you by StoneEagle, with transaction-level benchmarks and insights designed to help drive smarter decisions across the automotive industry.
StoneEagleDATA is part of StoneEagle’s broader suite of connected solutions — including StoneEagleMENU, StoneEagleMETRICS F&I, Pencilwrench, and StoneEagleMETRICS Service — helping dealers make smarter decisions across F&I, sales, and service.
