StoneEagleDATA: What 2025 Tells Us as 2026 Forecasts Turn Cautious

Forecasts call for a modest 2026 cooldown. We pressure-test each concern against dealer transactions to separate real risk from normal adjustment.

By Gregory Arroyo 

TCP Report — The Complete Picture — January 30, 2026: If you’re scanning industry forecasts heading into 2026, you’d think the car business is bracing for a material slowdown. 

New-vehicle sales estimates for this year hover around 15.8–16.0 million units, down modestly from 2025 levels. Analysts point to affordability pressure, labor uncertainty, and the fading of temporary incentives as reasons for caution. (Cox Automotive 2026 forecast & broader coverage) 

This complexity becomes clear inside dealer transaction data, where the narratives behind the numbers challenge surface-level assumptions.

StoneEagleDATA’s transaction-level benchmarks from the second half of 2025 show a market that adjusted, not one that cracked. The disconnect between forecasts and real-world performance is exactly why understanding how dealers navigated 2025 matters heading into 2026. 

Cooling Signals Didn’t Come from the F&I Office 

There’s no question that 2025 finished with pressure on the sales side. 

Front-end gross trended lower through the back half of the year. Total gross per deal followed. Deal counts were choppy month to month and finished the year below 2024 levels. 

What didn’t break was F&I.

This shows dealership profitability relied on F&I execution when affordability pressure intensified.

Across October, November, and December, F&I profit per vehicle retailed (PVR) held near or above $2,000. This shows dealership profitability relied on F&I execution when affordability pressure intensified. 

This was not a one-off; Q3 saw the same dynamic despite EV volatility and lower front-end gross. 

So, what was driving that pressure inside the deal? Well, the payment math got tougher.

Affordability Pressure Is Showing Up Inside the Deal

As widely reported in the trade media, Edmunds data showed that more than one in five financed new-vehicle buyers in Q4 2025 committed to $1,000-plus monthly payments, while average payments and amounts financed reached record levels.

StoneEagleDATA shows that pressure began to show up in late-year deal outcomes, starting with front-end gross falling to its 2025 low in December at $279. 

In F&I, while almost nine out of 10 gross dollars per deal came from the business office, December’s F&I PVR average stepped down to $1,975 from November’s 2025 StoneEagle record of $2,025.

If affordability was the constraint late in 2025, auto finance was the lever that kept deals moving ...

Product penetration rates moved lower at the same time: service contracts shifted from 46% in November to 44% in December, and GAP from 40% to 38%. 

Here's the 2026 thing to watch: whether the same levers dealers pulled throughout 2025 will still be there as we move through 2026.

The Auto Finance Pulse Check 

If affordability was the constraint late in 2025, auto finance was the lever that kept deals moving — and the data shows it stayed open, but not without pressure. 

Quarter over quarter, the financed term mix barely moved. According to StoneEagleDATA, 72-month loans remained the dominant structure for both new and used vehicles. Small shifts between 60 and 84 months showed up on the margins, but there’s no evidence of a broad retreat from longer terms. 

External credit data helps explain why the system could stay open.

The warning light is at the lower end of the credit stack. If subprime delinquencies keep climbing, lenders can tighten quickly — even while prime stays competitive.

Experian Automotive’s auto finance data through Q3 shows the market still leans heavily toward prime and super-prime, but below-prime lending didn’t disappear. In fact, Experian shows continued activity in the non-prime tiers even as lenders remain disciplined about risk. (Experian, State of the Automotive Finance Market — Q3 2025) 

That matches what F&I managers report in the field: competition, not contraction. A-paper lenders continued rate-matching and structuring programs around workable payments. In some cases, longer terms carried more favorable pricing than shorter ones — a sign lenders were managing risk through payment stability, not retreating.  Dealers did their part too, taking less on the front end to keep buyers in a payment that worked for their unique financial scenario. 

The warning light is at the lower end of the credit stack. If subprime delinquencies keep climbing, lenders can tighten quickly — even while prime stays competitive. Fitch has flagged elevated subprime delinquency stress, reinforcing why underwriting discipline remains a theme heading into 2026. (Reuters) 

Two Variables to Watch Early in 2026

The final months of 2025 offered a reminder that the car business rarely moves in straight lines.

Two forces to keep an eye on as 2026 unfolds: 

• Refund season liquidity: Higher nominal wages, updated withholding tables, and expanded refundable credits point to larger refunds early in the year — cash that historically shows up as down payments, lease inception, or negative-equity cleanup. (Automotive News) 

• Lease returns, especially EVs: While total off-lease volume remains well below pre-pandemic norms, EV off-lease returns are projected to rise sharply in 2026. That adds supply in specific lanes without signaling a broad inventory reset. (Car Dealership Guy) 

Labor is also part of the backdrop. Job growth slowed materially in 2025 compared with the prior year — a sign of less momentum in the broader economy even without a sharp rise in unemployment. (BLS Employment Situation) 

Neither force guarantees demand acceleration. Both add unpredictability — the same theme that defined much of 2025.

The Real Takeaway Heading into 2026 

Forecast caution isn’t coming from broken demand or failed financing structures. 

It’s coming from a market that held together in 2025 by adjusting, leaning on F&I execution, operating within tighter affordability limits, and navigating a selective yet functional finance environment.

That’s the context dealers carry into NADA 2026. 

That’s also why StoneEagle CEO Cindy Allen is skipping the forecast noise and going straight to the proof — dealer-level transactions — on the NADA Live Stage: See “The Complete Picture” (Thu, Feb 5 | 11:30 a.m.). Reception immediately after at Booth 2109W.

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