Six Months Without Fed Tax Credits: Where the EV Market Stands

StoneEagleDATA finds that used growth brought EV volume back to its year-earlier pace even as new transactions remained well below 2025 levels at dealerships.

By Gregory Arroyo

The end of federal clean-vehicle tax credits put one of the EV market’s central questions to the test: What would happen to sales without those federal credits?

EVs have never represented a large share in StoneEagleDATA’s dataset. In 2025, however, their annual share reached a high point at 3.2% of all new- and used-vehicle transactions. Behind that gain was a 17% increase in EV transaction volume from 2024.

The year’s sharpest movement came around the Sept. 30 expiration date. The National Automobile Dealers Association reported significant pull-ahead volume as buyers rushed to secure the credits and manufacturers directed more incentive spending toward EVs.

StoneEagleDATA shows the effect. EV transaction volume jumped 54% from the second to the third quarter and finished 64% above Q3 2024.

That increase reversed after the credits expired. EV transaction volume fell 61.2% from the third to the fourth quarter. By the second quarter of 2026, EV volume had inched 0.5% above its year-earlier level. The total was back; the composition was not.

Used EVs gained ground as new EVs declined

Across the first six months, overall EV transaction volume remained 10.1% below the same period in 2025. Beneath that result, used EV transactions increased 28.6%, while new EV transactions declined 27.7%.

For scale, EVs accounted for 2.7% of the nearly six million new- and used-vehicle transactions analyzed during the first half. That share was down from 3.1% one year earlier.

The first-half deficit was concentrated in the opening quarter. By Q2, StoneEagleDATA recorded a 15.7% decline in new EV transactions and a 32% increase in used EV transactions, bringing combined EV volume 0.5% above Q2 2025.

The increase in used EV transactions followed months of industry reporting about the off-lease EV supply expected to reach the market in 2026. A number of automotive publications, including Automotive News and Auto Remarketing, described the returning vehicles as a potential used-market opportunity for dealers.

Evidence of that shift had already begun to appear at auction. Automotive Fleet reported that nearly 37,000 EVs were sold through Manheim auctions during the first quarter, setting a record.

Leasing declined while F&I offset weaker front gross

The off-lease growth reflected the role the Qualified Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit had played in EV leasing before its Sept. 30 expiration. The credit allowed leasing companies to apply federal support toward lower payments on qualifying vehicles.

The change after that support ended was substantial. During the first half of 2025, leases represented 71.8% of new EV transactions in StoneEagleDATA, compared with 19.9% for financing. One year later, the two acquisition methods were nearly even: Leasing’s share had fallen to 44.9%, while financing had risen to 43.5%.

Financing’s larger role in new EV transactions coincided with stronger F&I results across EV transactions overall during the first half of 2026. Average F&I profit per vehicle retailed increased $213 to $1,789, while products per deal rose from 1.25 to 1.33.

That F&I gain became especially important as average front gross fell $154 to a loss of approximately $103 per transaction. Even with that front-end loss, average total gross per EV transaction increased from approximately $1,628 to $1,686.

Early third-quarter data point to an even wider divide between new and used EV activity—and another shift in the economics of the EV deal. StoneEagleDATA will examine both in its July report.

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StoneEagleDATA is part of StoneEagle’s broader suite of connected solutions — including StoneEagleMENU, StoneEagleMETRICS F&I, Pencilwrench, and StoneEagleMETRICS Service — helping dealers make smarter decisions across F&I, sales, and service.